Monsoon Sweeps Into Karnataka, Bengaluru Set for Rainy Arrival as Weather Agency Warns of Below-Normal Season

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on June 5 declared the onset of the southwest monsoon over the coastal districts of Dakshina Kannada and Udupi in Karnataka. The weather agency said the monsoon is expected to advance further into additional parts of the state, including Bengaluru, over the next two to three days.

According to an IMD press release issued on June 5, prevailing weather conditions remain favourable for the monsoon's rapid progression. If current conditions continue, the seasonal rains are likely to reach Karnataka's capital between June 7 and June 9.

The region has recorded continuous rainfall exceeding 2-3 mm in recent days, accompanied by wind speeds of 30-35 kilometres per hour and persistent cloud cover. Speaking to The Times of India, CS Patil, scientist at IMD Bengaluru, said that if these conditions persist, the monsoon is expected to advance into Mysuru, Chamarajanagar, Bengaluru and other parts of South Interior Karnataka within two days.

The IMD has projected that the weather system will continue advancing across more parts of Karnataka while covering the entire Goa region and extending into sections of Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh. Further progress is also expected over parts of the Arabian Sea, the Bay of Bengal and areas of northeastern India.

The southwest monsoon also reached Kerala on Thursday, arriving three days later than its normal onset date and five days after the date forecast earlier by the IMD. Traditionally, the monsoon reaches Kerala around June 1. On May 15, the IMD had predicted that the seasonal rains would arrive over the state by May 26, with a margin of error of four days.

Despite the delayed onset, meteorologists expect the monsoon to spread across most parts of the country by the third week of June, offering crucial support to agricultural activities across India.

However, concerns remain regarding the overall volume of rainfall during the season. The IMD has forecast monsoon rainfall at 90 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) for 2026, placing it in the below-normal category. The agency has also estimated a 60 per cent probability of deficient rainfall, defined as precipitation below 90 per cent of the LPA.

The monsoon remains vital for India's agricultural economy, with nearly 51 per cent of cultivated land dependent on rainfall and contributing around 40 per cent of total agricultural production.

Weather experts expect the monsoon to continue advancing steadily across the country over the coming days. Mahesh Palawat, Vice President, Climate and Meteorology, said rainfall over Kerala is likely to reduce this week, but the monsoon is expected to reach many additional regions, including parts of Northwest India, by June 15 and June 16.

Broader regional forecasts also point to a challenging season. A seasonal outlook issued by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on April 30 indicated that rainfall across much of South Asia is likely to remain below normal during the June-September 2026 southwest monsoon season, with the strongest deficit signals over central regions. The forecast map released by the WMO showed below-normal rainfall across almost all of India.

As the monsoon advances across Karnataka and moves deeper into the country, its progress will be closely watched by farmers, policymakers and weather experts alike. While the arrival of the rains offers immediate relief and agricultural hope, forecasts of below-normal precipitation continue to raise concerns over water availability, crop productivity and the overall performance of the 2026 monsoon season.